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The English side's opening match in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

With the help of CricViz, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the build-up has focused on the apparent challenge of batting successfully, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

When it comes to batting in Australia, especially against fast bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have required support, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Boland, other members of the backup squad have stepped up.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Since Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australian conditions.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the itinerary are the same, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

Perth stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the visitors tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often overthink day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|